Now, don't start panicking if Obama's your guy. Likewise, don't start planning McCain's inauguration just yet either, at least not on the strength of one poll. Why not?
- McCain just came out of his convention. While the Democratic convention might have been the more interesting of the two, Sarah Palin's speech was the single most interesting event offered by either convention. Lots of folks are just starting to get to know her, and she certainly delivered in her speech in St. Paul. Now she has to start interviewing. The moment she starts doing that will mark the end of the honeymoon.
- By definition, the poll is an outlier. Neither candidate has polled more than seven points ahead of the other before now. McCain, in particular, hasn't polled more than a few points ahead of Obama. Much more often he's been behind, and by a margin larger than the margin of error. If you see a few more like this one, we'll call it a trend. Then we can talk.
That said, should Obama fans be worried? Absolutely. McCain is showing signs of having simultaneously pulled off two magic tricks in a week: retooling his own campaign from "experience" to "change," and co-opting Obama's message (again the change angle). Sarah Palin, no matter what you think of her positions, is formidable. She didn't get where she is by accident, so Democrats ought not be expecting her to fold. Finally, McCain has shown himself to be quite a bit more agile than Hillary Clinton.
No, "more agile than Hillary" is not in fact a particularly high bar to get over. Two months ago, however, everyone thought Clinton was the toughest thing Obama would face, and he never quite convinced everyone that he'd shaken her. And yes, Democrats can thank the Clintons and their loyal minions for perpetuating the myth that Obama barely beat her. This line of thinking always required, to borrow a coined phrase, "willful suspension of disbelief." But plenty were buying, and now it's coming home to roost. Remember this when Hillary is running again in 2012 . . . because she has already started.
3 comments:
I'm not sure I understand your last paragraph about Obama "just barely" beating Clinton. In my book, it just doesn't matter. He won, she lost.
The margin of victory between Obama & Hillary will have little bearing on the 2012 election. The tone of the campaign then will certainly not be the same as it is today.
Crap, I left out a point.
Likewise the margin in the polls on Obama vs. McCain. The popular vote is important, but as you addressed yourself in your last post, it doesn't decide the victor.
So what, then, do the polls show us?
I absolutely agree with your point about Obama "just barely" beating Hillary. It's nonsense, and it always was. It's precisely what I was referring to when I talked about "willful suspension of disbelief." On the merits, Obama had her beat before Pennsylvania ever voted. Your book and mine read the same on this count.
As for the popular vote, however, there is a point at which the national average can be relied upon to indicate who's going to win. It's typically at around a 5%margin that the electoral college is very nearly guaranteed to deliver the same result as the popular vote. So, if a 10% margin holds up--and I don't actually think it will--then it's certainly significant.
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